Brazilian President Lula (Workers' Party, PT) and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (Liberal Party, PL) opened the first week of official election advertising online with opposite strategies, according to a survey by newspaper Folha de S.Paulo covering 89 Instagram posts by the two candidates between August 16 and 24.

Lula's content centered on self-referential videos with emotional appeal, drawing on his political career and previous terms in office. The tone is institutional: the president does not attack his rival's weak points, including the senator's ties to banker Daniel Vorcaro, according to Folha's analysis. Vorcaro is at the center of a separate financial scandal that has drawn scrutiny to Flávio's campaign.

This pattern is typical of whoever is leading the race, said Camilo Aggio, a professor at the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG) and researcher at Brazil's National Institute of Science and Technology for Digital Democracy, in comments to Folha. In the first Datafolha poll conducted after candidacies were formally registered, Lula leads both electoral scenarios: in a first-round matchup he polls at 39% against Flávio's 33%, while in a runoff scenario he leads 47% to 43%, a margin that sits at the edge of the poll's margin of error.

Aggio noted that negative campaigning is typically used by candidates who need to close a gap, which is the logic behind Flávio's approach on social media. The senator alternates daily attacks on the Lula administration with lighter content, such as a video featuring a dog he received as a gift at his campaign launch in Copacabana and a casual quiz alongside federal deputy Nikolas Ferreira (PL-Minas Gerais), which evokes the image of the senator's father, former president Jair Bolsonaro. According to researcher Monalisa Soares, a professor in the Social Sciences Department at the Federal University of Ceará (UFC), the candidate uses Instagram like a personal profile in an effort to connect with ordinary users.

Band debate and direct attacks

One of Flávio's attacks on the president came last Sunday, the day of a debate hosted by broadcaster Band, which the senator skipped. Allies of Flávio told Folha that the strategy of avoiding debates that do not include Lula is meant to directly confront the president without exposing the senator to attacks from other candidates in the race. That same day, Flávio recorded a lengthy video speaking directly to the camera in which he defended his willingness to debate on his own terms, according to Folha's reporting.

The fight for social media traction is expected to intensify in the coming weeks as the campaign moves toward the first round of voting in October. Researchers cited by Folha expect Flávio to keep up the pace of attacks as he tries to close the gap in the polls, while Lula is likely to continue prioritizing an institutional message as long as he holds the lead in Datafolha's surveys.