President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro are in a statistical tie in a possible runoff of Brazil's October presidential election, according to a Quaest poll released on Wednesday, September 2. Lula, of the Workers Party (PT), has 42% of vote intentions, against 41% for Flavio Bolsonaro, of the Liberal Party (PL) and son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. The one-point gap sits inside the margin of error of two percentage points.
Quaest interviewed 2,004 voters between August 30 and September 1 in a survey commissioned by broadcaster Globo and the newspaper O Globo. The poll is registered with the Superior Electoral Court, which runs Brazilian elections, under number BR-07065/2026, with a 95% confidence level. Compared with the previous round, released on August 14, Lula slipped from 43% to 42% and the senator rose from 40% to 41%, both shifts within the margin.
Where the race is tied
The segment breakdown, published by Globo's news portal G1 on Saturday, September 5, shows the contest is just as close inside specific voter groups. Voters aged 35 to 59 split 42% for Lula and 41% for Flavio Bolsonaro. Among self-declared independents, the score is 32% to 29% for the president. College graduates give the senator 44%, against 40% for Lula. Brazilians earning two to five minimum wages, a common benchmark for household income, prefer Flavio Bolsonaro by 45% to 39%, a tie at the edge of the margin. In the Center-West and North regions, the senator leads 48% to 38%; the margin for that segment is five points, which also keeps the race tied at the limit.
Strongholds and shifts since August 14
The moves between the two rounds of the survey favored the senator across part of the demographic map. Among men, a technical tie became a 47% to 39% lead. Among voters aged 16 to 34, a 41% deadlock for each candidate turned into 48% for Flavio Bolsonaro against 35% for Lula. Among college graduates, the senator's 11-point lead dissolved into the current tie. In the Center-West and North, the tie became a 10-point numerical lead, still at the limit of the margin.
Lula still leads the lower-income and lower-schooling groups, but his gaps narrowed. Among voters who finished only elementary school, his lead fell from 21 to 14 points, now 49% to 35%. Among those earning up to two minimum wages, the president leads 51% to 29%, down from a 31-point to a 22-point advantage. The Northeast is his widest base, at 62% to 28%. He also leads among Black voters, 49% to 31%, among those 60 and older, 49% to 32%, and among Catholics, 48% to 35%.
Flavio Bolsonaro runs strongest among evangelical Christians, 53% to 30%, in the South, 52% to 31%, and among white voters, 48% to 34%; among those earning more than five minimum wages he is 15 points ahead. In the head-to-head scenario, blank, spoiled votes and people who say they will not vote add up to 13%, and 4% of respondents are undecided. The first round takes place in October; if no candidate wins a majority of valid votes, the top two face a runoff on the last Sunday of the month. O Globo and the newspaper Estadao also reported the poll's headline numbers.