President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, are in a technical tie in a potential runoff of Brazil's presidential race, according to the Indexa/Broadcast poll released on Tuesday (15) and published by CartaCapital. In a head-to-head contest, the incumbent has 43% of vote intentions against 42% for the senator, a one-point gap that falls inside the margin of error of 2.2 percentage points (95% confidence level), which is what Brazilian pollsters call a technical tie. The institute heard 2,000 voters by phone between September 10 and 13, and the survey is registered with the electoral court, the TSE, under number BR-03482/2026. The first round is scheduled for October 4.
The change this round confirms is the narrowing of the race. Over one month, Lula fell from 46% to 43% while Flávio rose from 41% to 42%, cutting the gap from five points to one, the smallest since the institute's series began in May, Exame reported. In the first-round scenario with all registered candidates, Lula has 38% (39% in August) and Flávio holds 34%, also a technical tie and the year's smallest difference. Augusto Cury (Avante) rose from 1% to 6% into third place, ahead of Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) with 4%, Renan Santos (Missão) with 3% and Romeu Zema (Novo) with 1%.
Indexa tested four other runoff scenarios, all with Lula on the ballot. The president would beat Zema 45% to 34% and Renan Santos 45% to 35%, and would be technically tied with Caiado (43% to 39%) and Cury (41% to 39%). In the matchup with Flávio, Lula leads among women (46% to 39%), Catholics (47% to 39%), voters earning up to two minimum wages (47% to 37%) and in the Northeast (57% to 30%). Flávio does better among men (46% to 39%), evangelical voters (55% to 30%), those earning more than five minimum wages (47% to 39%) and in the South (56% to 31%) and the Center-West (51% to 31%). In the Southeast, the senator leads 44% to 40%.
Government approval and trust in the top court
The same round measured the political climate as the Supreme Court goes through an internal crisis. According to CNN Brasil, Lula's government is approved by 46% of voters and disapproved by 50%, with approval unchanged from August; in the overall rating, 35% call the administration terrible and 34% rate it excellent or good. On the court, 45% of respondents say they distrust the Supreme Court's work and only 10% say they trust it a lot, while 68% say they fully support impeaching the ministers involved in the crisis. A Datafolha poll released over the weekend, cited in columns alongside the Indexa survey, shows a similar split: 28% support impeaching Justice Alexandre de Moraes and 34% say he should be suspended so he can be investigated, according to UOL and G1.
A fragmented polling picture
Recent polls point in different directions. The CNT/MDA survey released over the weekend gave Lula 47.3% against Flávio's 40% in a runoff, according to CNN Brasil, while PoderData/Aya, from September 10, had Flávio numerically ahead, 47% to 45%, according to Poder360. Differences of this size are expected, because each firm works with its own sample, field period and method, and some of the gaps fit within the margins of error.
Readers can check these numbers safely: confirm on the TSE website that a poll carries a registration number (this round is BR-03482/2026), treat small differences as ties given the error margins, and weigh the sequence of rounds from the same institute more heavily than any single snapshot. Polls measure vote intentions at the time the interviews were conducted; the official result only exists at the ballot box, on October 4.