The Fundação SOS Mata Atlântica, a Brazilian environmental group, describes the country's Atlantic Forest as Brazil's "first line of climate defense" against a new El Niño forming in the Pacific Ocean. The assessment comes from Luis Fernando Guedes Pinto, the foundation's executive director, in a column published by newspaper Folha de S.Paulo on Wednesday. According to him, the United States oceanic and atmospheric agency Noaa recently confirmed the phenomenon's formation and estimates a 63% probability that it will reach very strong intensity between late 2026 and early 2027.
Guedes Pinto argues that the key question for Brazil is not just how strong the event will be, but how its effects will hit a country he describes as deeply unequal, heavily urbanized and vulnerable to floods, landslides, droughts and water crises. In that scenario, he says, the native vegetation still standing along Brazil's coast, known as the Mata Atlântica or Atlantic Forest, works as a natural protective structure: it helps hold hillsides in place, regulates rainfall patterns and sustains water supply in river basins that serve much of the country's population.
Official bulletin details regional risks
Independent reporting reinforces the scale of the situation. According to the outlet Neo Mondo, Noaa's Climate Prediction Center issued an alert on August 13 using unusually stark language: sea surface temperature anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific already exceed 2 degrees Celsius, and the agency projects a 69% chance of a historic event for the October-December quarter, one that could surpass every El Niño recorded since 1950. The probability of a very strong event in the second half of the year exceeds 90%, per the same data.
In Brazil, Bulletin No. 2 of the El Niño 2026-2027 Panel, released July 31 by agencies including Inmet, Inpe, the National Water Agency (ANA), Cemaden and the National Civil Protection and Defense Secretariat, projects opposite effects across the country: heavy rain and flood risk in the South, alongside prolonged drought in the North, Northeast, Center-West and Southeast. The bulletin flags a critical situation in the Paraguay River basin and a delayed rainy season in the Legal Amazon region, with a 100% probability the phenomenon will remain active into early 2027.
Recent history shows what is at stake. In 2024, Rio Grande do Sul state suffered floods that killed 181 people, with losses estimated at 88.9 billion reais (roughly 17 billion dollars) by the Inter-American Development Bank, the United Nations' Cepal and the World Bank, according to figures cited by Neo Mondo. Disasters like that one have pushed governments, companies and environmental groups to build disaster-response protocols in advance rather than reacting after the fact.
Guedes Pinto argues that preserving and restoring the Atlantic Forest, now reduced to a fraction of its original cover after centuries of deforestation along Brazil's densely populated coast, should be treated as climate adaptation policy rather than a standalone environmental issue. Folha de S.Paulo was the only primary source located with direct access to the analysis; other outlets consulted independently corroborate the Noaa figures and the official Brazilian panel's data on the phenomenon's intensity and regional risks.