Senator Sergio Moro (PL) leads the race for governor of Paraná with 37% of voting intentions, according to the first Quaest poll commissioned by RPC and released on August 24. State lawmaker Requião Filho (PDT), running with the backing of Lula's Workers' Party (PT), comes second with 21%. Federal lawmaker Sandro Alex (PSD), the candidate of incumbent governor Ratinho Junior, has 15%. The margin of error is three percentage points in either direction.
A former judge in the Car Wash (Lava Jato) corruption probe and former justice minister under Jair Bolsonaro, Moro holds just over 49% of valid votes, according to G1. Within the margin of error, he could win outright in the first round. The lead repeats the results of the institute's previous surveys in April and July, as reported by Folha de S.Paulo.
Ratinho's high approval does not turn into votes
The poll lays bare Governor Ratinho Junior's (PSD) difficulty in transferring his popularity. He has a 79% approval rating and a 68% positive evaluation, and 65% of voters say he deserves to elect his successor. Still, only 15% say they will vote for his pick. According to Quaest, 62% of Paraná voters do not know Sandro Alex, and just 21% know he is the governor's candidate.
"The data shows that Ratinho Junior has political capital to transfer, but that transfer has not happened yet. The 'problem', therefore, is not rejection of his government, but the lack of association between that legacy and Sandro Alex", Felipe Nunes, Quaest director and professor at the Getulio Vargas Foundation, told G1.
Ratinho Junior settled on a successor late. In March, the governor dropped his own pre-candidacy for the presidency to focus on the state race, and Sandro Alex, a former infrastructure secretary, was only announced on April 13. In the meantime, two allies left the PSD and launched pre-candidacies for other parties. Former Curitiba mayor Rafael Greca joined the MDB and ended up as Sandro Alex's running mate, announced on July 31. State lawmaker Alexandre Curi moved to the Republicanos party and is running for the Senate. "Without a doubt, Rafael Greca has a consolidated track record and is a name with far stronger political capital than Sandro Alex", Nilton Sainz, who holds a doctorate in political science from the Federal University of Paraná, told G1.
For Karolina Roeder, a political scientist from the Federal University of Paraná and professor at Uninter, choosing a name unknown to voters reflects an "already won" mood inside the governor's camp. "At several points he keeps trying to attach himself to Ratinho Junior. But that leaves him without a face, without his own identity. And voters need to get to know him, not Ratinho Junior", she told G1.
Five other candidates are in the race. According to Folha, cultural producer Tayná Miessa (Unidade Popular) and lawyer Luiz França (Missão) scored 1% each, while Alexandre Salomão (Mobiliza), Adriano Funileiro (PCO) and Professor Samuel Mattos (PSTU) did not register. The contest remains open: undecided voters and those who may still change their minds add up to more than 60% of the electorate, according to G1. Free campaign advertising on TV began on Friday (28) and runs until October 1, on the eve of the first round. If there is a runoff, the programming returns between October 9 and 23.