R$ 11.05 trillion. That is the size of Brazil's public debt, equal to 82.9% of GDP, the highest level since March 2021. In practice, it is part of what keeps car loans, mortgages and credit card bills expensive for the Brazilians voting in the first round of the 2026 election.
Days before the vote, g1 compared the government plans filed with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) by Lula (PT), Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), Augusto Cury (Avante) and Romeu Zema (Novo) across five topics: online betting, public debt and the budget, interest rates, household indebtedness and growth with productivity.
The backdrop is the central bank's benchmark rate, the Selic, now at 13.75% a year after reaching 15%. According to g1, it remains among the highest in the world in real terms, as the central bank keeps it high to bring inflation back to the 3% annual target.
The basics: the government runs a primary deficit when it spends more than it collects, before interest payments. In August that gap was R$ 10 billion, and the total from January to August reached R$ 88.9 billion.
With interest included, the 12-month deficit reaches R$ 1.26 trillion, or 9.48% of GDP. Interest alone added up to R$ 1.18 trillion over the period, more than R$ 3 billion a day.
What the plans say
In the programs filed with the TSE, the leading candidates point to high interest rates as one of the main obstacles to growth and defend rebalancing public accounts, but without detailing how they would do it, according to g1.
For Gabriel Uarian, chief analyst at Cultura Capital, the next president will have to rein in mandatory spending such as pensions, salaries and social programs. Felipe Salto, chief economist at Warren Investimentos, says the adjustment "cannot be of the 'shock' type" and needs to take effect early. Zeina Latif, of Gibraltar Consulting, and Flávio Ataliba, of the FGV Ibre research institute, defend reforms and a credible fiscal rule to lower the risk premium investors charge.
Betting, the topic where plans differ most
A study by Comsefaz, a committee of state finance secretaries, estimates that online betting took R$ 62.5 billion out of household budgets in 2025, nearly four times the R$ 15.3 billion the government collected in taxes on the sector since the start of that year. In September, the Lula government announced a provisional measure, a decree that still needs congressional approval, to ban fixed-odds betting, online games and virtual casinos.
Caiado proposes banning betting ads in mass media and social networks, capping bettors' spending and treating compulsive gambling. Flávio Bolsonaro wants to block the use of social program funds for betting and to promote financial guidance through Caixa, a state-owned bank. Lula defends controls on betting-related debt, stricter credit rules and expanded mental health care.
The plans of Cury and Zema do not mention betting directly, according to g1. Cury's program addresses digital dependence and proposes digital citizenship and emotional management classes in schools. Industry groups oppose the ban and say it could push bettors toward illegal platforms beyond the reach of regulators.