Up to R$ 42.3 billion. That is the adjustment Brazil's 2027 federal budget may need to absorb the measures President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva announced in the final stretch of the campaign: a bigger Bolsa Família, the country's main cash-transfer program, a ban on online betting and the Desenrola 3.0 debt-relief plan. The estimate comes from the newspaper O Globo and from InfoMoney, and it means less room to spend for whoever wins the October 4 election in the first year of the next term.
The bill adds up pieces on different timelines: R$ 22 billion in extra Bolsa Família spending in 2027, R$ 5.3 billion in tax revenue that disappears with the end of online betting, and R$ 15 billion earmarked for Desenrola 3.0, which can stretch into 2028. None of it was in the budget bill sent to Congress on August 31.
The Bolsa Família raise of 15.04% lifted the minimum monthly payment from 600 to 691 reais starting in October, an extra 91 reais for each family on the floor benefit. The additional cost in 2026 is R$ 5.8 billion, since the raise covers only the final months of the year. In 2027, with twelve full months, it climbs to R$ 22 billion, nearly four times more.
Finance Minister Dario Durigan defended the raise as a recovery of losses to past inflation and said the government has already begun reviewing spending to fit next year's bill.
In brief: the Orçamento is Brazil's annual budget law, which sets how much each federal area may spend, and any change after the bill reaches Congress must be approved by the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate. This case squeezes public accounts from two sides at once: higher spending on benefits and programs, and lower revenue after the betting ban. Even if the new expenses fit under the legal spending limit, the lost revenue must be replaced with other taxes or with cuts.
The betting ban and Desenrola 3.0
The ban on online betting sites, known in Brazil as bets, came through a provisional decree, a measure that takes effect at once but needs congressional approval within 120 days, published in a special edition of the official gazette on Friday (25), nine days before the election, according to G1. Players can withdraw balances until 11:59 p.m. on October 5, and from October 6 the sites and apps go offline. Planning and Budget Minister Bruno Moretti estimates the ban will cost R$ 5.3 billion in foregone revenue in 2027, less than a tenth of the R$ 62.5 billion that betting drained from Brazilian family budgets in 2025, according to Comsefaz, the council of state finance secretaries.
In Desenrola 3.0, the federal government will buy portfolios of personal debts at auction, with a minimum 90% discount, and pass the discount on to borrowers. The program targets up to R$ 150 billion in overdue debts of up to 10,000 reais per loan, with a spending ceiling of R$ 15 billion: for every real of debt bought, the state would spend at most ten cents. Moretti said disbursements start in 2027 and the cost must respect the rules that cap public spending.
How the government says it will pay
The government says it will fit the new expenses inside the fiscal rules by reallocating and reviewing spending, which means deciding which areas lose resources. The strategy announced by Moretti is to cut spending elsewhere without raising the total. The final effect on public accounts will depend on actual disbursements and on the compensations adopted.