The government of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will forecast a surplus of R$18 billion to R$20 billion in its 2027 budget proposal. Planning and Budget Minister Bruno Moretti gave the figures in an interview with Folha de S.Paulo. According to him, this is the effective result of the public accounts, calculated after counting all the exceptions that allow spending outside the limit set by the fiscal framework, the spending rule known as arcabouço.
"With or without spending containment, the accounts I run today deliver me a full primary surplus with public policies working, a real increase in the minimum wage, Bolsa Família and the health and education funding floors. We have a balanced budget again," Moretti told Folha.
The exact figure will be announced on Monday (31), when the Executive branch sends Congress the PLOA, the annual budget bill, for 2027. It will be the first budget of the next president's term, which begins in January after the October election. In an interview with Valor Econômico, Moretti also said the bill provides for an increase of about 20% in discretionary spending, the portion of the budget the government can allocate freely, unlike mandatory items such as pensions and the Bolsa Família cash transfer program.
The projected range is an improvement over the positive R$8 billion forecast in April, when the government sent Congress the 2027 budget guidelines bill, which sets the fiscal effort target for the year. Earlier, according to the portal Terra, the minister had already said the government will post a fiscal surplus in 2027 even counting the exceptions to the target.
Most favorable proposal since 2015
An effective surplus has been a central demand of critics of the Lula administration's fiscal policy. In recent years the government met its target with the help of exceptions written into law. The final balance, without those mechanisms, is what specialists call a "real" surplus. A primary surplus means revenue exceeds spending before interest payments, helping cover the cost of the public debt and avoiding new borrowing.
With these values, according to Folha, the 2027 proposal is set to be the most favorable for the public accounts since the 2015 budget bill, sent in 2014, which projected a surplus of R$86 billion in values of the time.
The constitutional deadline for submitting the budget bill ends on Monday (31). After submission, the text goes to Congress's joint budget committee, which must vote on it by the end of the year before it can be signed into law.