One in three Brazilians (33%) says their family income did not grow at all over the past year, according to a Quaest poll released on Monday (Sept. 7). In practical terms, for one in three households the money coming in is the same as twelve months ago, while prices on the shelves kept rising. Combined, those who saw no income growth (33%) and those who saw income rise less than the cost of living (21%) add up to 54% of respondents: more than half the country says their salary buys less than it did a year ago.
The question was blunt: "Thinking about what your family earns and the rise in prices over the past year, you would say that...". Another 33% said income and the cost of living rose at the same pace, and only 10% said income grew faster than prices, meaning fewer than one in ten Brazilians feel their money stretches further than a year ago. The figures are identical to the previous round, from Sept. 2.
How the poll was conducted
Quaest, hired by Globo and the newspaper O Globo, interviewed 2,004 people aged 16 and older across Brazil between Sept. 3 and Sept. 6. The margin of error is two percentage points in either direction, with a 95% confidence level. The survey is registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), Brazil's top election authority, under number BR-01720/2026.
Explained: the margin of error means each figure can swing two points up or down. If the poll shows 33%, the real value in the population sits between 31% and 35%, with 95% confidence. That is why one- or two-point differences between rounds do not signal a change.
Income perception splits Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro
Answers on family income separate the two leading candidates in Brazil's presidential race. Among those who say income grew faster than prices, President Lula of the Workers' Party (PT) has 76% of first-round voting intentions, against 11% for Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), within a group that carries a 7-point margin of error. Among those who say income did not grow, Bolsonaro leads with 34% to Lula's 23%, with a 4-point margin.
This was the first Quaest round after new details emerged in the Banco Master investigation involving Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, InfoMoney reports. In the full first-round scenario, without Pablo Marçal, Lula has 36% and Bolsonaro 29%. The daily Folha de S.Paulo and G1 also show the two tied at 41% each in a simulated runoff.