A poll by Gerp released on Wednesday shows Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the PL party leading President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the PT in a hypothetical runoff for October's presidential election. According to the survey, published by Poder360, Bolsonaro has 47% of voting intentions against 42% for Lula. Another 8% of respondents said they would not vote for either candidate, and 3% did not answer.
The pollster interviewed 2,400 voters nationwide between August 21 and 25, 2026. The margin of error is 2 percentage points, with a 95% confidence level. The poll is registered with Brazil's top electoral court, the TSE, under number BR-03547/2026. It cost 20,000 reais and was commissioned by the Association of Radio and Television Broadcasters of the State of Sao Paulo.
In the first-round scenario, Gerp shows Flávio at 38% and Lula at 37%, a statistical tie within the margin of error. Behind the two front-runners are Pablo Marçal of the PRTB with 4%, and Renan Santos of the Missão movement and Ronaldo Caiado of the PSD, each with 3%. The poll also measured rejection: 49% of respondents said they would 'never' vote for Lula, compared to 40% for Flávio. On Lula's government, 51% disapprove and 43% approve.
A different picture from other pollsters
The Gerp numbers contrast with other institutes tracking the presidential race. A PoderData/Aya poll released on August 13, also through Poder360, showed a much tighter runoff scenario, with Lula ahead 46% to 45%, within the margin of error. That survey had Lula leading the first round with 41% against Flávio's 35%. The gap between the two studies, conducted by different pollsters weeks apart, highlights the volatility that has marked election polling at this stage of the campaign.
Under Brazilian electoral law, every pollster must register its methodology and funding source with the TSE for polls published during election year, which is how such divergent results can be traced and compared. Analysts recommend tracking the average of multiple surveys rather than any single poll to gauge real trends in the race between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, who is running as the standard-bearer of his father, former president Jair Bolsonaro's political movement.