38% of Brazilian voters say they plan to vote for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who is running for reelection, in the October 4 first round, according to a Real Time Big Data poll released on Tuesday, September 1. For voters still weighing their choice, the figure means Lula leads comfortably and remains far from the majority of valid votes that would hand him victory in a single round. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (Liberal Party) follows with 29%, and writer Augusto Cury (Avante) has 10%.

The president's lead over Flávio is 9 points. Across the 2,000 people interviewed, that equals roughly 180 more respondents choosing the incumbent. In the prompted survey, in which candidates' names are read to voters, Renan Santos (Missão) also appears with 6%, former governor Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) with 4%, Pablo Marçal (PRTB) with 3% and former governor Romeu Zema (Novo) with 2%, CNN Brasil reported.

A second scenario removes Marçal, currently barred from running by a decision of the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), Brazil's top election authority, according to InfoMoney. Little changes: Lula repeats 38%, Flávio rises one point to 30% and Cury reaches 11%. Blank and spoiled ballots and undecided voters account for 3% each.

A tie in the runoff

The race turns when a single rival is left: Lula and Flávio tie at 44% of voting intentions in a possible runoff, a result close to a coin toss. On July 21, the same institute had Lula at 45% and the Liberal Party candidate at 42%. The poll did not test a runoff between Lula and Cury.

In another scenario, Caiado reaches 45% against Lula's 43%, a gap inside the margin of error. Against Zema, Renan Santos and Marçal, the president leads by 43% to 40%, 44% to 37% and 44% to 40%, respectively. InfoMoney reads the scenarios as a gain for the Liberal Party candidacy since the July survey.

Explainer: every poll carries a margin of error, here two percentage points up or down. Across 2,000 interviews, two points equal about 40 people, and gaps that small cannot declare a winner, a situation pollsters call a statistical tie. That is why Caiado's 45% to 43% edge over Lula gives him no lead.

Matching rejection, poor marks for the government

Lula and Flávio share the same rejection rate: 50%, the equivalent of one in every two voters saying they would not vote for either man. Cury posts the lowest figure on the list, 28%. On the government, 51% disapprove of the president's performance and 45% approve.

Real Time Big Data interviewed 2,000 voters nationwide between August 27 and 31. The margin of error is two percentage points, with a 95% confidence level, and the poll is registered with the TSE under number BR-03490/2026. CNN Brasil reported the survey was commissioned by the institute itself.