State-level polls by pollster Quaest released Wednesday show President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's voting intentions stabilizing, while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) gained ground. According to journalist Valdo Cruz's blog on G1, the numbers reinforced an assessment inside Lula's reelection campaign that new political developments with electoral impact will be needed before the first round of voting on October 4.
In the state surveys, Flávio Bolsonaro edged ahead of Lula in São Paulo (30% to 29%), Minas Gerais (31% to 30%) and Rio de Janeiro (31% to 29%), all within the margin of error. Lula's campaign believes that passing two constitutional amendments before the election, one ending the '6x1' work schedule (six days on, one day off) and another overhauling public security policy, would hand the president fresh material for television and radio campaign ads.
Meeting with Congress leaders
On Wednesday, Lula met with the Speaker of the Lower House, Hugo Motta (Republicanos-PB), and the President of the Senate, Davi Alcolumbre (União-AP), to align strategy for both amendments and for a provisional measure that eliminated Brazil's import tax on small international purchases, popularly known as the 'taxa das blusinhas' (the 'little blouse tax'). Before the meeting, Lula wrote on social media: 'Today is an important day for our future. I will meet with Speaker Hugo Motta and Senate President Davi Alcolumbre to address, with the urgency the Brazilian people need, four issues: ending the 6x1 schedule and the small-purchase tax, the public security amendment and the critical minerals framework law,' according to G1.
Per G1, the amendment ending the 6x1 schedule sits in the Senate's Constitution and Justice Committee and could be voted as soon as next Wednesday. Lula's allies are pushing to hold the full Senate floor vote the same day, combining what would normally be two separate rounds of voting, a maneuver used before when there is political consensus. Alcolumbre did not rule out the possibility but made no promises to government allies, the outlet reported.
Folha de S.Paulo confirmed that both amendments will reach the Constitution and Justice Committee during Congress's 'concentrated effort' week, the same period in which a joint committee reviewing the import-tax measure is set to be installed on Tuesday. The newspaper reported the measure expires if not voted on by September 8, which would restore the 20% tax on international purchases under $50 less than a month before the first round. 'This provisional measure will not expire,' Alcolumbre said, according to Folha.
Opposition pushback
The opposition intends to slow the votes but acknowledges the difficulty of blocking the 6x1 amendment once it reaches the floor. 'If the Senate puts the end of the 6x1 schedule to a vote, senators running for reelection will have a hard time voting against an agenda with broad popular support,' an unnamed opposition leader told Valdo Cruz's blog. Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign, meanwhile, expects to reach a statistical tie with Lula in upcoming first-round polls and to take a numerical lead by September, according to sources cited by G1. The Constitution and Justice Committee vote on the 6x1 amendment is scheduled for next Wednesday, and the timing of a full Senate floor vote, still uncertain, will determine whether the government secures the legislative win it is seeking before October.