A Quaest poll released on Monday (21) shows Flavio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party (PL) at 42% and President Lula of the Workers' Party (PT) at 41% in a simulated runoff in Brazil's presidential race. The one-point gap falls inside the survey's two-percentage-point margin of error, a technical tie. Globo and the newspaper O Globo commissioned the poll.
In the first round, Lula leads with 37% against 33% for Bolsonaro, a senator from Rio de Janeiro, according to figures published by G1, Globo's news portal. Flavio is the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, whom Folha de S.Paulo describes as convicted and jailed for an attempted coup d'etat. A week earlier, the president had 36% and the senator 31%.
The rest of the first-round field
Behind the two front-runners, writer Augusto Cury (Avante) holds 6%. Former Goias governor Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) has 4%, Renan Santos (Missao) has 3% and former Minas Gerais governor Romeu Zema (Novo) has 1%, level with Samara Martins (UP). Blank and spoiled ballots plus voters who say they will stay home add up to 7%, and 8% are undecided.
Other runoff scenarios, rejection and the calendar
Last week's Quaest round already showed a runoff tie, at 42% for Flavio Bolsonaro and 40% for Lula. The president gained one point and the senator stayed put. The institute also tested four other pairings: Lula 41% to 39% against Caiado; 41% to 38% against Renan Santos; 39% to 35% against Cury; and 46% to 32% against Zema.
Rejection of the two rivals is nearly identical: 56% of respondents say they know Flavio Bolsonaro and would not vote for him, and 55% say the same of Lula. Among those who have picked a candidate, 79% call the choice final and 21% say they could still change.
Quaest interviewed 2,004 people aged 16 and over across the country between September 17 and 20. The margin of error is two percentage points and the confidence level is 95%. The poll is registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), which runs Brazilian elections, under number BR-06004/2026. Voting in the first round takes place on October 4; if no candidate wins a majority of valid votes, the runoff is set for October 25. According to Folha, both campaigns are stepping up their push for a "useful vote" in the final stretch, urging backers of trailing candidates to rally behind one of the two front-runners.