Brazilian President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro are tied at 41% each in a simulated runoff of the presidential race, according to a Quaest poll released on Monday (7). The survey is the institute's first since turmoil erupted at the Supreme Court, known as STF. Quaest interviewed 2,004 people aged 16 and over nationwide between September 3 and 6.
In the first-round scenario, Lula has 36% of voting intentions and Flávio Bolsonaro 29%. Writer Augusto Cury ranks third with 8%. In the previous round, released on September 2, the president had 37%, the senator 30% and Cury 10%, according to Folha de S.Paulo. Renan Santos and Ronaldo Caiado poll 3% each, Romeu Zema has 2% and Samara Martins 1%. Undecided voters make up 10%, and 8% plan to cast a blank or spoiled ballot or not vote.
Runoff scenarios
In the head-to-head with Flávio, Lula slipped from 42% to 41%, while the senator held at 41%. Blank, spoiled and non-votes add up to 13%, with 5% undecided, according to g1. The margin of error is two percentage points and the confidence level is 95%. The poll was commissioned by Globo and the newspaper O Globo, and registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), which runs Brazilian elections, under number BR-01720/2026.
Lula is also technically tied with Ronaldo Caiado, 41% to 38%, and with Augusto Cury, 39% to 35%. Against Renan Santos the score is 42% to 37%; against Romeu Zema, 44% to 33%. Every shift from the September 2 round stayed within the margin of error.
The trend line shows a tightening race. In July, Lula led a simulated runoff with 45% to Flávio's 37%, an eight-point advantage that has vanished, according to InfoMoney. The new round also shows no clear impact so far on voting intentions from the fallout over messages exchanged between Justice Alexandre de Moraes and businessman Daniel Vorcaro, or from the opening of investigations into the president's son Fábio Luís Lula da Silva, known as Lulinha. The same poll puts rejection of Lula at 53% and of Flávio at 55%.
What comes next
The first-round scenario excludes influencer Pablo Marçal, barred from running for office until 2032, who registered a presidential candidacy after an injunction from the São Paulo state electoral court. The TSE will rule on the case; it has already barred him from campaign funds, televised debates and free electoral airtime. According to Folha, two justices and advisers to two others expect the request to be rejected. The first round is set for October 4, with a runoff on October 25 if needed.