A series of Quaest polls released this week across 23 Brazilian states and the Federal District shows that disapproval of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's government exceeds approval in 15 of the 24 jurisdictions surveyed. The figures were compiled by G1.
Maranhão, in the Northeast, is where Lula posts his highest approval: 66%, against 27% disapproval. In the same poll, the president draws 57% of first-round voting intentions in the state, against 20% for Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), his main challenger. At the other end, Roraima and Santa Catarina give the government its worst numbers, with just 28% approval each. Disapproval reaches 66% in Roraima and 69% in Santa Catarina.
Northeast leads, South and Southeast lag
According to G1, the Northeast is Lula's strongest region. Beyond Maranhão, approval tops 50% in Pernambuco (62%), Paraíba (61%), Rio Grande do Norte (60%), Sergipe (60%), Bahia (59%) and Alagoas (52%). The South-Southeast axis forms a low-approval bloc: São Paulo records 37% approval and 58% disapproval; Minas Gerais, 41% and 52%; Rio de Janeiro, 40% and 51%; Paraná, 36% and 60%; Rio Grande do Sul, 38% and 55%; and Espírito Santo, 41% and 53%. In the Federal District, which includes the capital Brasília, 39% approve and 55% disapprove.
Disapproval also prevails in most of the remaining states. Goiás shows 33% approval and 58% disapproval; Mato Grosso, 36% and 55%; Acre, 36% and 57%; Rondônia, 35% and 56%; and Mato Grosso do Sul, 39% and 55%. Exceptions outside the Northeast are Amazonas, with 54% approval, and Tocantins, with 49% approval against 44% disapproval. Amapá is split: 46% approve and 47% disapprove.
The state-level surveys carry a margin of error of three percentage points, except São Paulo, where the margin is two points, according to G1. Quaest has not yet polled in Ceará, Pará and Piauí.
Next poll
Quaest will release a new national voting-intention poll on Wednesday (2), commissioned by Globo and the newspaper O Globo. It will interview 2,004 people between August 30 and September 1, with a two-point margin of error, according to its filing with the Superior Electoral Court. The questionnaire again measures approval and disapproval of the Lula government. Brazil holds the first round of its general election in October.