R$ 10.5 billion, roughly US$ 2 billion. That is what Brazil's Receita Federal, the federal tax authority, now expects to collect this year from the new tax on dividends, less than half the R$ 29 billion projected when the levy was created, according to Folha de S.Paulo. For ordinary taxpayers nothing changes right away: the tax is charged as before, and the shortfall lands on the Treasury, which had counted on that money to offset the cost of exempting more workers from income tax.

The revision was announced on Tuesday (22) by Claudemir Malaquias, head of the tax and customs studies center at the Receita Federal. The previous estimate, R$ 17.2 billion, came out about two months ago, so the forecast has fallen by R$ 6.7 billion in eight weeks.

In everyday terms, R$ 10.5 billion is a little over R$ 50 per resident. From January to August the tax brought in R$ 4.03 billion, according to the tax office, about R$ 2 of every R$ 1,000 collected by the federal government, which raised R$ 2.019 trillion over those eight months.

Why the estimate fell

In plain terms: dividends are the slice of profit that companies distribute to shareholders and partners. Since the start of this year, payments above R$ 50,000 carry a 10% income tax, and the same rate applies to profits remitted abroad. Until then, dividends were exempt.

Of the total collected through August, R$ 2.615 billion came from dividends above R$ 50,000 paid in Brazil and R$ 1.415 billion from the 10% levy on money sent overseas. The reason for the gap was already known to the tax office: many companies rushed out profit payments last year, before the tax took effect, to avoid the charge. "Every month the amounts collected kept growing. Statistically, we are making an inference that it will keep growing until the end of the year, which gives us the R$ 10 billion," Malaquias said.

The gap against the original forecast totals R$ 18.5 billion that will not reach this year's budget as planned. Malaquias said the new figures will feed the fiscal projections the government presents this week. The revision arrives in the same week as a strong revenue report: August collections reached R$ 235.5 billion, a record for the month and a real increase of 8.25% over August 2025, according to Agência Brasil.