US President Donald Trump announced that Russia will immediately release 300,000 tonnes of diesel to the American and global market. The deal with Vladimir Putin also foresees 500,000 tonnes in November, one million tonnes after that and up to three million more, according to Trump's post on Truth Social. Because diesel powers the trucks and farm machinery that move food, its international price feeds into freight costs and grocery bills, in the US and abroad.

The 300,000 tonnes equal roughly 2.25 million barrels, while the US burns 3.8 million barrels of diesel a day, according to Tim Armitage, an investment strategist at wealth manager Quilter Cheviot. In other words, the first shipment does not cover even one full day of American consumption. "It will not make a significant difference to fuel prices in the US," he told the BBC, calling the move a "somewhat desperate" attempt to curb inflation before the midterm elections.

The announcement follows months of expensive diesel in the US, a spillover from the war with Iran, which began in February and pushed up energy costs worldwide. The average American gallon, a measure of 3.8 liters used at US pumps, now costs US$ 6.28, just below the record US$ 6.53 hit in late September. Filling a large pickup truck already tops US$ 90, the price of a big grocery run for a family.

Here is how it works: the deal relies on a temporary license from the US Treasury, issued right after the announcement, that suspends until April 7 of next year the sanctions on Russian diesel exports. Sanctions are economic penalties that bar companies and banks from doing business with the targeted country. Analysts consulted by the BBC believe other Russian assets, such as money held in American banks, remain frozen, so the relief applies only to fuel.

Ukraine's reaction

The move angered Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who called the deal a gift to Putin and "an investment in a war that must be ended, not prolonged", adding that Moscow would repay the relief with "more terror". Zelensky also defended Ukraine's drone strikes on Russian refineries, which cut Russia's diesel output by nearly 30% this year, according to the International Energy Agency. "Ukraine will not set Russian oil refineries on fire if Russia does not destroy our energy infrastructure," he said.

Putin confirmed Russia's willingness to sell oil and derivatives to the US and global markets but gave no volumes, and Russian negotiator Kirill Dmitriev said the cooperation "will benefit the world". The BBC asked the White House what Moscow gets in return and received no answer, while analysts doubt that Russia, which banned diesel exports early this year precisely because of shortages, can deliver what was promised. The agreement also clashes with a law recently passed by the US Congress, and signed by Trump himself, authorizing new sanctions and tariffs on countries that import Russian oil and gas.