A growing divide between how men and women intend to vote is emerging as one of the most significant factors in Brazil's presidential race between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers' Party (PT) and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party (PL), according to reporting by BBC News Brasil. Political scientists call the phenomenon the 'gender gap,' a measure of how far female and male voting preferences diverge, and it has been widening in Brazil since 2018.
'To some extent, Lula's reelection is in women's hands. If Flávio can break through this rejection he faces among women, that's a step toward winning the election,' political scientist Jairo Nicolau, a professor at the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) and author of the book 'O país dividido' ('The Divided Country'), which examines Brazil's presidential races over the past two decades, told BBC News Brasil. Nicolau notes the gap between men's and women's votes existed before 2018 too, but was much narrower than what is seen today.
He recalls that in 2018, Jair Bolsonaro faced stronger rejection among young women but still won the election with a small margin among female voters and a very wide margin among male voters. In 2022, the pattern flipped in an unprecedented way: Lula won with a clear advantage among women and narrowly lost among men, according to Nicolau's analysis of that year's voting-intention polls. He says it was the first time a candidate was elected while winning only one of the two gender segments.
What the 2026 polls show
This year's surveys suggest the pattern could repeat. According to a Genial/Quaest poll conducted in early August, Lula holds 44% of voting intentions in a potential runoff against Flávio Bolsonaro, who has 39%. The BBC News Brasil Poll Aggregator shows a narrower gap, 45% to 44% in Lula's favor.
Lula's advantage is driven almost entirely by female voters. Per Genial/Quaest, 47% of women say they would vote for the president versus 35% for Flávio, a 12 percentage point gap. At BBC News Brasil's request, pollster Quaest broke down that preference using the average of surveys conducted from February to August: among women in Brazil's Northeast region, Lula leads 62% to 23%; among Black women, 55% to 24%; and among women earning up to two minimum wages, 52% to 29%. By age group, the president holds an advantage of more than 10 points among both younger and older women, while among women aged 35 to 59 the gap narrows to 43% versus 37%. Among men, the pattern reverses but with a tighter margin: 44% say they would vote for Flávio against 40% for Lula.
The near-even split of the electorate by gender amplifies the weight of the female vote in the final result. According to Superior Electoral Court (TSE) data cited in the report, 83.8 million women are registered to vote in this election, equivalent to 52.8% of the total electorate, about 9 million more than the 74.8 million registered male voters. The gap reflects mainly the fact that Brazilian women live, on average, longer than men, part of the country's broader aging demographics.
Flávio Bolsonaro's response
In late July, Flávio Bolsonaro expressed disbelief at his rejection by most women in the polls, arguing the right offers better proposals on issues such as public safety and the fight against drugs. 'What's missing? We need to communicate better. It's hard to understand how the polls show, for example, that women are voting more for the other side than for us,' the senator said, according to BBC News Brasil. 'Ask a mother if she wants her child on drugs. Is it the right or the left that's against drugs? The left runs programs to legalize drugs.'
The report also notes that as the gap between women's and men's votes has widened, so has a wave of social media content attacking women's right to vote. Podcast clips with lines like 'the female vote is the error of Western democracy' have circulated on YouTube, TikTok and Instagram, according to BBC News Brasil.