The head of audits at the European Union's food safety authority, Eric Thévenard, estimated on Monday (28) that Brazil will not resume beef exports to the bloc for at least two years. He made the remark to members of the European Parliament's Agriculture Committee, the legislature of the 27-nation bloc.

"The time between birth and slaughter is about two years, so you can do the math: nothing before two years, in theory. From now until two years from now, no beef should come from Brazil," Thévenard said, according to Folha de S.Paulo.

A production cycle that slows the return

Beef and chicken shipments to the EU have been suspended since September 3. The measure, which also covers pork, honey, fish and eggs, could affect up to US$ 2 billion a year in Brazilian exports, according to state news agency Agência Brasil. The bloc's reason is regulatory: it considers Brazil's controls on antimicrobials in livestock insufficient. EU rules ban the substances as growth promoters and bar those reserved for treating infections in humans. The EU found no contamination or sanitary irregularity in Brazilian lots, and the Brazilian government contests the reading, saying its laws already restrict such use.

Chicken should return sooner. Folha reported that the Europeans have cleared a resumption of poultry shipments, expected after a meeting in late October, helped by the short production cycle of about 45 days. Cattle are another matter: the bloc requires the animal to live under the new protocols from birth to slaughter, which rarely happens in less than 18 months, according to Folha. Agência Brasil estimates that a bovine that starts under the new rules today will need 24 to 36 months to reach slaughter.

The money at stake and Brazil's response

In 2025, Brazil exported US$ 1.05 billion in beef to the EU (about 5.7 billion reais), according to Folha. Agência Brasil, based on figures presented by the industry to European authorities, puts the number higher, at roughly US$ 1.7 billion. Europe takes a small share of Brazil's total beef exports, but it buys higher-value cuts, and each destination tends to demand specific cuts, which makes immediate substitution difficult.

To overturn the block, Brazil's Ministry of Agriculture presented guarantees to the Europeans. One is a private protocol drafted by the National Agriculture Confederation (CNA) and Abiec, the beef exporters' association, already approved by the ministry, which provides for audits of farms and slaughterhouses cleared to export to the bloc. The ministry also issued rules defining banned medicines and creating protocols for traceability, alerts and the blocking of contaminated lots. All Abiec member companies eligible to sell to the EU have joined the protocol, the association says. The Europeans rejected a Brazilian proposal for a transition period and are expected to conduct an in-person audit.

For Brazilian ranchers and meatpackers, the cost is losing the market that pays the most for premium cuts. For European consumers, the block is a regulatory dispute over drug controls; Brazilian beef was never found unfit for consumption. Farm media on the continent are following the case, including Ireland's Agriland, which reported Thévenard's remarks under a headline of a ban lasting at least two years.