The United States has opened a temporary import window of up to 300,000 tonnes of beef over the next 90 days, exempt from the extra tariff that normally applies to out-of-quota shipments. President Donald Trump announced the measure on August 21 to increase domestic supply and contain prices: according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), the American cattle herd is at its smallest in 75 years, and fresh beef reached US$ 9.64 a pound (about US$ 21.25 a kilo) at retail in April, up 13% from a year earlier.

At a White House event, as reported by the BeefPoint news site, Trump confirmed that Brazil and Argentina are expected to lead the supply of the additional volume. "There may be other countries, but right now it is mainly Argentina and Brazil. We are doing it in a very limited way because our ranchers can supply the market," the US president said. Washington's interest is clear: to make hamburger ground beef cheaper while local ranchers, squeezed by droughts and a shrinking herd, receive incentives to rebuild production.

For Brazil, the opening creates an immediate opportunity. Analyst Fernando Iglesias of the consultancy Safras & Mercado estimates the country can capture between 30% and 40% of the additional volume, or 90,000 to 120,000 tonnes in the next 90 days. The position is favorable because Brazil is already the largest beef supplier to the United States, ahead of Australia, Canada, Mexico and New Zealand. From January to August, US buyers imported 269,100 tonnes of Brazilian beef worth US$ 1.74 billion, a volume 28.7% higher than in the same period of 2025.

How the current quota works

Today Brazil shares with other suppliers a tariff-free quota of 52,400 tonnes, which Iglesias says was fully used in just 15 days. After that, Brazilian beef keeps entering the US market but pays an additional 26.4% tariff. The new window removes that charge for 90 days and improves access conditions, according to the Brazilian Association of Meat Exporting Industries (Abiec), which is waiting for the regulation to measure the impact on exports.

The space will not be divided automatically among countries. According to Iglesias, Brazil's most direct competitors for the extra volume are Paraguay and Central American countries, since Argentina holds quotas of its own for the US market. Each exporter will have to win market share, and the price offered to American buyers will be decisive.

The price question

There is also a point of caution for Brazilian meatpackers. US demand is concentrated in trimmings, the lean pieces removed while processing the carcass and used to make ground beef. Because the product has low added value, companies are still calculating whether the price paid by Americans offsets export costs and the alternative of selling the same animal in other markets. Trump said the measure could cut consumer beef prices by as much as 25%, but experts cited by Forbes consider a significant impact on supply and prices unlikely.