350 reais a year on average, about 29 reais a month. That is the extra income the tax reform cashback should deliver from 2027 to 28 million families enrolled in Cadastro Único, Brazil's registry of low-income households, according to Folha de S.Paulo. Among them are 19 million families that receive Bolsa Família, the federal government's main cash transfer program.
The money comes from refunds of the CBS, the new federal consumption tax that replaces PIS, Cofins, the IOF on insurance and part of the IPI, a levy on manufactured goods, starting in January 2027. The estimate is the government's own, adjusted for inflation since Congress passed the law regulating the reform. The final figure will be set by the Receita Federal, the country's tax authority, and depends on the CBS rate: the higher the rate, the larger the refund.
A calculation commissioned by Folha from Giovani Padilha, deputy undersecretary at the Rio Grande do Sul state revenue office and one of the creators of the refund program launched in that state in 2022, puts the ceiling at 354 reais next year for a family living only on Bolsa Família, assuming a 10% CBS rate. On top of the average benefit of 777 reais a month that takes effect in October, that works out to a 3.8% boost to yearly income. It is less than a quarter of the 15.04% raise granted in September, which lifted the minimum payment from 600 to 691 reais and the average from 675 to 777 reais, according to the Social Development Ministry.
How the cashback works
The cashback returns, after the purchase, part of the consumption taxes paid by low-income families, defined as those earning up to half the minimum wage per person with an active Cadastro Único registration. Under Complementary Law 214/2025, the federal government refunds 20% of the CBS paid on ordinary goods and services and 100% of the CBS embedded in electricity, water, sewage, piped gas and phone bills, plus cooking gas cylinders of up to 13 kg. Enrollment is automatic: families that meet the requirements start receiving the refund without applying.
The annual cost should come close to 10 billion reais, the result of multiplying the 350-real average by the 28 million families. The outlay does not enter the fiscal framework, the set of rules that limits the growth of federal spending, because the refund is treated as an exemption or restitution and is deducted directly from tax revenue instead of being booked as an expense.
The boost should grow from 2029, when the IBS, a tax shared between states and municipalities, begins replacing the ICMS and the ISS and also becomes refundable. Folha reports the expectation that the yearly cashback will double at that stage. Until then, the program remains the reform's main tool to offset the weight of consumption taxes on the poorest households.