Expansion in Chinese poultry production is shifting international flows of chicken meat. In the first half of 2026, China's poultry output rose more than 9% compared to the same period in 2025, after a roughly 7% expansion the previous year, according to data from agribusiness lender Rabobank. That domestic surplus fueled an aggressive foreign sales push: between January and May 2026, Chinese shipments totaled 546,000 tonnes, a 51% jump year-on-year, according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).
The surge centers on specific cuts. Chicken breast accounted for nearly two-thirds of China's foreign sales between January and May 2026, totaling 257,000 tonnes, according to Chinese customs records. Because local culinary preferences favor chicken feet, wings, and dark meat, Chinese processors direct raw breast meat abroad. That volume puts Chinese suppliers in direct competition with Brazil, the world's leading poultry exporter, which shipped 5.3 million tonnes in 2025.
Asymmetric trade and cultural demand
Despite the emerging rivalry, China remains one of the largest buyers of Brazilian chicken. Between January and September 2026, Chinese importers bought 420,000 tonnes of chicken from Brazil, generating US$ 1.15 billion in revenue. The bilateral trade rests on divergent consumption habits: Chinese buyers pay roughly US$ 3,000 per tonne for chicken feet, an item with minimal domestic value inside Brazil, according to the Brazilian Animal Protein Association (ABPA). In 2025, shipments of chicken feet to China brought in US$ 221 million for Brazilian plants.
Market analysts expect competition to concentrate in regions with fewer non-tariff trade barriers. Chenjun Pan, animal protein analyst at Rabobank, notes that Chinese processors are gaining market share primarily across the Middle East, Asia, and Africa. Premium markets such as the European Union, Japan, and South Korea maintain strict sanitary protocols regarding avian influenza that restrict Chinese poultry. ABPA president Ricardo Santin argues that global consumption expansion provides breathing room, pointing to UN Food and Agriculture Organization projections indicating poultry will account for two-thirds of worldwide protein consumption growth.
The changing dynamics bring distinct consequences to each end of the supply chain. For Brazilian producers and slaughterhouses, Chinese export volumes squeeze profit margins on breast meat contracts, raising pressure to defend premium sanitary credentials and specialized cuts. For overseas buyers and retail consumers in developing economies, having an additional large supplier curbs price inflation on the world's primary animal protein.