Brazilian beef now faces a 55% surcharge to enter China as of Thursday (Oct 1), after Brazil used up its annual reduced-tariff export quota on Wednesday (Sep 30). Added to the 12% import duty already in place, the total levy reaches 67%. China's Ministry of Commerce confirmed the quota had been filled, according to Canal Rural, with further details reported by G1.
Brazil's quota for 2026 was 1.106 million tonnes. The surcharge is part of a safeguard measure Beijing announced in late 2025 covering several supplier countries, with the stated goal of protecting Chinese cattle ranchers, who local authorities said were being hurt by cheaper imported beef. China is the biggest buyer of Brazilian beef.
Shipments slowed well before the quota ran out. According to Roberto Perosa, president of Abiec (the Brazilian Meat Exporting Industries Association), July, August and September were "very tough" months for the industry, with exports cut back to what was needed to honor contracts already signed. Selling less to their top customer, meatpackers redirected beef to other markets, saw profit margins shrink and felt cash flow tighten: some companies rely on advance payments from Chinese importers to cover day-to-day expenses.
An early race for the 2027 quota
In 2027, the tariff-free limit rises to 1.128 million tonnes, but it is expected to run out much earlier. Perosa said in September that next year's quota could be exhausted as soon as March or April: "We will go from three months of strain to six," he told G1. The difference is that the industry now knows the volume in advance and is already moving. Slaughtering is expected to pick up this month and shipments in November, so the beef reaches China in January, since the sea voyage takes 40 to 45 days. The open question is how fast the Chinese will buy: according to Perosa, beef stocks in China are high and pork production is strong.
An attempt to expand room this year went nowhere. President Lula said on September 21 that Uruguay would cede Brazil part of its quota, estimated at roughly 80,000 tonnes left unshipped out of a 324,000-tonne total, but China did not authorize the transfer, according to a Reuters report confirmed by Canal Rural. To keep the 2027 quota from running out so early, Abiec has resumed talks with the government about splitting the volume among meatpackers, using criteria such as export share and sales history; a similar proposal was turned down for 2026. Competition for the quota is growing as new plants come online: on Tuesday (Sep 29), China cleared two more beef plants, Supremo Carnes in Carlos Chagas (Minas Gerais) and Masterboi in Canhotinho (Pernambuco), plus two chicken plants, the Agriculture Ministry said.
For Brazil's beef supply chain, the picture until January is shipments too costly for the main buyer, thinner margins and a scramble for alternative markets; Abiec estimates total Brazilian beef exports will fall 10% in 2026, also pressured by European Union restrictions. On the Chinese side, protecting local ranchers comes at a price: any importer who wants Brazilian beef beyond the quota will pay a 67% levy on it, which is likely to hold purchases back until the quota resets in January.