Expanding the diagnosis and control of high blood pressure could prevent 518,476 cardiovascular deaths per year across 20 middle-income countries, according to preliminary results of a study presented on Sunday (11) at the Hypertension Scientific Sessions 2026, an American Heart Association conference held in Arlington, Virginia. Among all the preventive health services analyzed, blood pressure care had the greatest potential to save lives, the research found.
The analysis, led by a team at Johns Hopkins University, used statistical models to simulate the effect of raising the use of six preventive services to a level comparable to high-performing U.S. health systems, reaching about 80% of eligible people. In that scenario, statin treatment for high cholesterol would prevent another 340,682 deaths a year, and blood sugar control in people with type 1 or type 2 diabetes, 309,520 more. Colon cancer screening could prevent 206,767 deaths annually. The estimates drew on databases such as the Global Burden of Disease, the NCD Risk Factor Collaboration and the World Health Organization's STEPwise initiative.
"I would say this number is an approximation based on the best available data, and while the number may not be exactly that, I would expect the true result to be within that general range," Scott Pilla, associate professor of medicine at Johns Hopkins and lead author of the study, told Brazilian news outlet G1.
Only one in five has blood pressure under control
The study estimates that only about one in five adults with hypertension in the countries analyzed kept blood pressure below 140/90 mm Hg, the threshold the researchers used to define control. Among people with high cholesterol, just 16% were taking statins, and 39% of those with diabetes kept blood sugar below the optimal level. Routinely indicated cancer screenings had been done by 14% to 26% of the target population. According to Pilla, the main gaps are limited detection of hypertension, insufficient access to medical care and medication, and weak health system infrastructure.
The greatest potential gains lie in middle-income countries: blood pressure control could prevent 223,282 deaths a year in upper-middle-income nations and 223,655 in lower-middle-income ones. No low-income country was included in the analysis. Non-communicable diseases account for about three in five deaths worldwide, and roughly 73% of them occur in low- or middle-income countries, with cardiovascular disease as the leading cause.
What remains preliminary
The findings were presented as a conference abstract and have not yet been peer-reviewed, so the conclusions are considered preliminary until a full paper is published in a scientific journal. The authors themselves caution that the numbers come from a mathematical model and that some countries had limited data on service use. The blood pressure target used in the study, below 140/90 mm Hg, is also looser than the American Heart Association's 2025 guideline, which recommends under 130/80 mm Hg for people in treatment. What is already well established, independent of this study, is that hypertension is the most prevalent modifiable risk factor for cardiovascular disease and that treating it lowers the risk of death, heart failure, stroke and dementia, as Daniel W. Jones, chair of the 2025 guideline writing committee, noted.
The practical takeaways are direct: have your blood pressure measured regularly, since the condition usually causes no symptoms; seek medical care after a diagnosis; and keep taking prescribed medication without stopping on your own. In Brazil, high blood pressure affects nearly half of all adults, according to G1, which makes early diagnosis and treatment adherence the most actionable steps for anyone with access to primary care.