Brazil's 2026/27 soybean crop could fall by about 10% if a strong El Niño materializes, dropping from 181.2 million to 163.6 million tonnes, according to a study released on Tuesday (27) by credit bureau and data firm Serasa Experian. In that scenario, financial losses for the sector could reach R$ 33 billion (roughly US$ 6 billion), calculated on August prices.
The projection already assumes a 900,000-hectare expansion in planted area, up 1.8% from the previous cycle, to 49.9 million hectares. Even with more land under cultivation, scarce rainfall and high temperatures would cut yields, Serasa said, in a scenario built from the historical behavior of the climate phenomenon across soybean regions of Brazil, the world's largest producer and exporter of the commodity.
Center-West bears the losses; Rio Grande do Sul could gain
The steepest declines would hit the Center-West, the country's main farm belt, where drought and heat tend to be more severe during El Niño years. Mato Grosso, the top producing state, could lose 9.7 million tonnes, and Goiás, 4 million tonnes. In the worst-case scenario, 13 states would see lower yields, including Paraná, São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Mato Grosso do Sul, Bahia and Maranhão. In the opposite direction, Rio Grande do Sul could harvest 5.5 million tonnes more, since the southern state usually receives more rain during the phenomenon, while four other states could post small gains.
The study comes as planting advances quickly. Data from consultancy AgRural, released Monday (26), show 40% of the expected area had been sown by Thursday (22), ahead of the same period last year, except in the South, where excessive rain slowed fieldwork. According to Daniel de Oliveira, agro geoprocessing manager at Serasa Experian, the risk is now shifting phases, moving away from planting and toward how rainfall will be distributed as the crop develops.
"But the risk has not disappeared. We still cannot say the 2026/27 crop is free of the impacts we are discussing in this study," Oliveira said, noting that weather must cooperate during flowering and grain filling, stages concentrated in November and December in the main producing states. During the last strong El Niño, Brazil's average yield fell more than 8% in 2024, to 3,282 kilos per hectare, compared with 2023, a weak La Niña year, according to data from state crop agency Conab cited by Serasa.
For producers, Serasa itself adds a caveat: a smaller soybean supply tends to push prices up, which could offset part of the losses and change selling conditions. For consumers and the industries that buy the grain, the effect runs the other way. A shorter crop in the world's largest exporter pressures international prices, which can make vegetable oil and animal feed more expensive and, further down the chain, meat, eggs and dairy.