Online betting platforms, known in Brazil as bets, drained between R$ 120 billion and R$ 141 billion from the Brazilian economy in 2025, or 0.9% to 1.1% of GDP, according to a study by the Center for Research on the Macroeconomics of Inequalities (Made) at the University of São Paulo's economics school (FEA/USP), released on Tuesday (Sept. 15). For households, that means money left family budgets and stopped circulating in shops, markets and services. The net transfer from households to the platforms alone reached R$ 62.5 billion, roughly R$ 300 per resident if split across the whole population.
To size the damage, the researchers compare the loss with the country's own performance in the same year. The estimate equals 40% to 50% of everything the economy grew in 2025 and is about five times larger than projections for the impact of US tariffs on Brazilian GDP. The calculations also account for the direct and indirect jobs created by the industry, and the picture barely changes.
"To gauge this magnitude, the estimated loss corresponds to something between 40% and 50% of all the economy's growth in 2025 and is about five times larger than estimates of the impact of American tariffs on Brazilian GDP," the study concludes.
In plain terms: GDP, or gross domestic product, is the sum of all goods and services a country produces in a year, the standard yardstick for the size of an economy. When up to R$ 141 billion is pulled out of that circulation, the effect shows up as weaker sales, fewer hires and lower tax revenue.
Impact on public accounts
The slump in activity would cut tax revenue by R$ 31.1 billion to R$ 54.8 billion, the researchers calculate. Even after discounting the roughly R$ 9 billion collected directly from betting platforms, the net effect on public accounts would be negative by at least R$ 22 billion and could reach R$ 46 billion. By the study's measure, that hole equals 10% to 20% of the entire public health budget of São Paulo in 2025.
The study also weighs the effect on household debt. If the R$ 62.5 billion sent to betting companies had been financed entirely by new loans, a scenario the authors themselves call extreme, betting would account for about 14% of the rise in household indebtedness in 2025, a year in which consumer credit balances grew by about R$ 450 billion. There is also a risk of income concentration: the richest 1%, who already take in about 24% of the country's income, could see that share rise by 0.5% to 2.1%, depending on who pockets the profits.
"Even in the most conservative case, it is a significant effect in a country where income concentration is already extremely high," the researchers write.
Betting on the campaign trail
The study lands in the final stretch of Brazil's presidential race, with gambling at the center of the debate. A column by Carlos Juliano Barros at UOL that amplified the research says betting has become a target in the election. Newspaper Estadão reported in late August that campaigns are courting voters with pledges to crack down on bets, a message aimed at protecting household budgets.
For the Made researchers, the effects go beyond the individual losses of gamblers. By pulling income mainly from poorer households, betting shrinks demand, drags down GDP, cuts tax collection and deepens inequality, the study concludes.