Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said on Wednesday (September 9) that it had attacked 10 vessels in the Persian Gulf, including two US ships and eight oil tankers. The statement, reported by G1, the news portal of Brazil's largest media group, framed the operation as a response to the US destruction of five Iranian tankers the day before. The force said it hit ships trying to cross what it called a "prohibited and unsafe" area of the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint that in peacetime carries about a fifth of the world's oil.
Hours earlier, the US Central Command (CENTCOM) released footage of Iranian tankers sinking in the Gulf of Oman. According to the Americans, four vessels were hit there, including the M/T Riesco, which the US says was part of a clandestine oil transport network tied to the Revolutionary Guard, while the fifth, the M/T Derya, was struck near Kharg island in the Persian Gulf. Crews were ordered to abandon ship before the strikes, which Washington described as retaliation for two failed attempts to hit a US warship with ballistic missiles over the previous two days. Speaking to reporters during a visit to Colombia, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned:
"Iran keeps trying to attack US Navy ships, and every time they do, or try to, they will lose tankers. I believe you will see it happen again today."
The most immediate effect for Brazil is the price of oil. Brent, the global benchmark that also guides fuel prices in Brazil, hovered around $97 a barrel on Monday (September 7), up 9 percent in five days and 19 percent in a month, according to Al Jazeera. "Global supply deficits are persisting, and there is little end in sight to these shortages," said Rachel Ziemba of the Center for a New American Security. A more expensive barrel raises the cost of imported diesel and puts pressure on pump prices and inflation in a presidential election year. There is also a diplomatic channel: Iran and Brazil are both members of the Brics group of major emerging economies, and an analysis published by Al Jazeera suggested that a Brics summit may be the only place to rebuild a ceasefire, a position that would cast Brasilia as a go-between.
The interests at stake
Tehran says it answered the sinkings with ballistic missiles against the Muwaffaq Salti air base in Al Azraq, Jordan, and against two US destroyers. Jordan's army said it intercepted 18 of the 20 missiles and that the other two fell in uninhabited areas with no casualties, according to CNN Brasil. The Revolutionary Guard also warned tanker crews docked near ports in Kuwait and Bahrain, which host US forces, to abandon their vessels. On the economic front, the Trump administration sanctioned 27 Iranian airlines and nine service providers linked to Mahan Air, which Washington accuses of backing the Guard.
The war began on February 28, when the United States and Israel attacked Iran, according to Al Jazeera. A 60-day memorandum of understanding signed on June 17 in Geneva paused the fighting and collapsed in August amid disputes over who controls the strait: the Americans keep a naval blockade of Iranian ports, while Tehran insists that ships follow routes approved by the Revolutionary Guard. Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei announced a "restricted zone" starting at the US blockade line. "We will only commit to the Strait of Hormuz being open when they stop the sabotage, threats and attacks on Iran," he said, according to Iranian state media.
Around the Gulf, interests pull in different directions. Qatar wants the strait reopened unconditionally; Kuwait and Bahrain host US forces and now appear in Iranian threats; Oman is negotiating an alternative corridor with the International Maritime Organization; and China is shielding itself with strategic reserves and purchases from Russia, which analysts say could cover nearly half of its daily needs. Traffic has already fallen to an average of 10 cargo ships a day over the past 10 days, according to the data platform Kpler; before the war, about 20 million barrels of oil a day flowed through the waterway. With Rubio promising more tankers destroyed and Rezaei conditioning the reopening on an end to attacks, Wednesday's round looks unlikely to be the last.