Brazil holds the world's second largest reserves of rare earths, a group of 17 chemical elements essential to electric cars, wind turbines and military equipment. As China and the United States escalate their fight for control of this supply chain, the country has become a prize courted by both sides. The question now, according to analysts cited in the Brazilian press, is whether Brazil will move beyond exporting raw material and build an industry of its own.
The global map is dominated by Beijing. In 2025, China accounted for roughly 85% of worldwide rare earth refining, according to G1. The United States has been looking for alternatives to reduce its dependence on Chinese output, which Beijing has already used as a tool of commercial pressure through export restrictions. The European Union and other industrialized nations are watching closely, also searching for suppliers outside the Asian axis.
What it means for Brazil
American interest is already turning into money and acquisitions on Brazilian soil. A US government agency signed a US$ 565 million financing agreement with Serra Verde, a company producing rare earths in the state of Goiás, G1 reports. In October, the American firm USA Rare Earth completed its purchase of Serra Verde, owner of the Pela Ema mine in the town of Minaçu, according to CNN Brasil. The deal, announced in April, was valued at about US$ 2.8 billion and sits inside a US$ 1.55 billion financing structure that includes US$ 750 million from the US Department of War, aimed at securing the output of the Brazilian miner.
Serra Verde is currently the only commercial-scale rare earth producer in Brazil. According to USA Rare Earth, it is also the only operation outside Asia able to produce at scale the four main elements used in permanent magnets: neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium and terbium. The mine's first phase foresees capacity of around 4,000 tonnes of total rare earth oxides per year by the end of 2026, and an expansion under construction should lift average output to about 6,400 tonnes a year, CNN Brasil reported.
Prices and the limits of the opportunity
The commercial value of these materials varies with the element and its level of processing. In 2025, a kilo of processed neodymium oxide, used in high-powered magnets, cost US$ 73 on average, according to G1. The price gap between raw ore and refined product is exactly where most of the chain's profit sits, and that profit is concentrated in China today.
For Brazil, the international dispute can attract investment, technology and skilled jobs. The challenge, G1 points out, is to avoid being confined to extracting and exporting raw material, a long-standing pattern in the Brazilian economy. The sale of Serra Verde to an American group illustrates the dilemma: it guarantees capital and a market, but leaves a decisive stage of the chain in foreign hands. The outcome will depend on industrial policy, regulation and the government's ability to negotiate with Washington and Beijing without closing doors to either.