R$ 2.12 per liter. That is the value of Brazil's federal diesel subsidy that expires on Monday (26), the day after the presidential runoff, and the government has yet to say whether it will renew it, according to Folha de S.Paulo. If the benefit lapses, the impact goes beyond the pump: almost everything Brazilians buy travels by truck, so pricier diesel tends to mean pricier food.
The pressure comes from oil, which closed Friday (23) at US$ 116.93 a barrel, the highest since April. The rally began last week, when the Houthis, a Yemeni group allied with Iran, stepped up attacks on refineries and airports in Saudi Arabia.
The problem is that the subsidy no longer covers the bill. Adding up all the subsidies, the government pays out R$ 3.52 per liter, less than half the price of imported diesel, estimated at R$ 6.76 per liter by consultancy Stone X.
Understand: a subsidy (subvenção, in Portuguese) is a discount funded by the Treasury so producers and importers can sell diesel below its real cost. In practice, taxpayers cover the difference so truckers do not pay it at the pump.
How big the gap is
On Friday, diesel sold at Petrobras refineries was R$ 3.53 per liter below import parity, the price the fuel would have if bought ready-made abroad. Across the wider market, the lag was R$ 3.29, according to Stone X. Data from Abicom, the fuel importers' association, point the same way: the average gap at the state company's refineries hit 108% after the oil rally, Canal Rural reported.
For gasoline, the lag is smaller: R$ 0.58 per liter at Petrobras and R$ 0.42 in the national average. The company, Brazil's state-controlled oil giant, has not raised diesel since September 17, when it added R$ 1 per liter, and did not respond to Folha's interview requests.
Analysts at Itaú BBA believe that, if the gap stays this wide, Petrobras could breach its own pricing policy in 2026. "In this scenario, the company would need to make additional price increases," they wrote. The company's board meets on Monday and is expected to discuss fuel prices with a focus on diesel, according to Canal Rural.
For consumers, the squeeze is already real. Diesel S-10, the most sold grade at Brazilian pumps, averaged R$ 7.10 per liter in September, up 15.1% over 12 months, according to a Veloe-Fipe survey cited by Canal Rural. At that price, filling a truck's 400-liter tank costs almost R$ 2,840.
The R$ 2.12 subsidy can be extended for another 30 days, and the benefit has been maintained before through Finance Ministry decrees. But the fuel market fears the government will scale back the subsidies now that the election period ends, Folha reported. As of Friday night, no decision had been announced.