The government programs of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) for education leave gaps about a new direction for the sector, show little appetite for firm targets and recycle old promises. That is the conclusion of an analysis published Monday night (24) by the newspaper Folha de S.Paulo, which compared the plans of the two presidential candidates. Lula filed his program with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), Brazil's electoral authority, on August 7, and Flávio on August 13, according to the news site Poder360.
According to Folha, both documents reflect each candidate's vision of the country but share weaknesses: a lack of concrete goals, no robust programs for the different stages of school and academic life, reused promises and little substance to face learning challenges with equity in basic education. The sector runs on a multibillion-real budget and includes one of the largest basic education systems in the world, with 46 million students, 80% of them in public schools.
Slow learning gains
Recent data shows progress remains slow. The 2025 Ideb, the official index that measures the quality of basic education in Brazil, reinforced a pattern of stronger improvement in the early years of elementary school that loses steam in the later years and in high school. Only 11 states recorded relevant learning gains in Portuguese and math in high school between 2015 and 2025, the newspaper points out. Between 2005 and 2015, only three did.
Recycled promises, few targets
Lula's program touts achievements of the current administration and stresses that the Education Ministry had to rebuild policies, budget and even its own structure after what the text describes as the dismantling of the sector under former president Jair Bolsonaro, Flávio's father. But, the analysis notes, promises cited in the plan are already in legislation, such as the pledge to follow the targets of the National Education Plan law (PNE), or had already been announced by the current government: 111 new federal institutes (today there are 39 institutes and two Federal Centers of Technological Education), universal school connectivity and 80% of children literate at the right age, up from 66% now.
The most assertive target identified by Folha is in Flávio's program: to eliminate by 2030 the number of schools without water. Today, 4% of the country's 137,000 public schools have no access to piped water. On literacy, the senator proposes the national adoption of the phonics method, a policy of his father's administration that, according to the newspaper, drew a negative reaction and produced little result.
Despite the differences, the programs converge on some topics. A comparison by Poder360 of the two candidates' proposals for the 2027 to 2030 term found that both promise to expand access to full-time schooling. The plans were presented early in the campaign for the first round of the election, scheduled for October 4.