The United States and Venezuela announced on Friday what President Donald Trump called "the largest oil deal in history": majority control by Washington over more than 65 billion barrels of proven Venezuelan oil reserves. In a post on the social network Truth Social, Trump said he secured the deal at no cost to the American taxpayer. Venezuela's interim president, Delcy Rodríguez, confirmed the announcement hours later, saying the pact will bring investments of more than $100 billion and tax revenue of about $209 billion for the Venezuelan state over 25 years.
According to BBC Brasil, the 17 fields covered by the deal hold about 21.5% of Venezuela's reserves, the largest in the world, estimated at 303 billion barrels by the US Energy Information Administration. The country, however, pumps only about 1.25 million barrels a day after years of underinvestment, mismanagement and sanctions, and the deal aims to lift output above 1.5 million barrels a day. On Sunday, Trump said Venezuelan oil will be used to refill the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which holds about 290 million barrels, near a 44-year low, and he called the deal "a gift from Venezuela to the people of the United States".
For Brazil, the deal touches a market the country knows well. If Venezuela meets its target, a major supplier returns to the international oil market, where Brazil ranks among the largest exporters, and the extra supply tends to weigh on prices, with knock-on effects for Brazilian export revenue and the royalties collected by the public sector. In the short term, though, little should change: according to CNN Brasil, it is unclear how quickly the deal can refill the US reserve, since the Venezuelan industry requires heavy investment and infrastructure work before output can rise.
A rare convergence of critics
The deal is the latest episode in a year in which the United States imposed a maritime blockade on Venezuela, detained President Nicolás Maduro in a military operation and recognized his then vice president, Delcy Rodríguez, as interim ruler instead of promoting a democratic transition, as BBC Brasil reported. Criticism of the pact came from both ends of Venezuela's political spectrum. The economist Ricardo Hausmann, a professor at Harvard's Kennedy School and a fierce opponent of the Venezuelan government, wrote on X to the US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, one of the deal's architects:
"You decided to use the power of the United States not to free Venezuelans, but to side with our oppressors. You chose to promote an appropriation of assets, an unconstitutional deal with an illegitimate and oppressive government, instead of using US leadership to first restore constitutional order and democracy."
From the other end of the spectrum, Rafael Ramírez, a former president of the state oil company PDVSA (Petróleos de Venezuela) and oil minister for much of Hugo Chávez's government, said the deal will go down in history "for being a sellout and for opening the doors to the new US colonialism" and described it as an agreement made "behind the country's back". On Saturday afternoon, dozens of pro-government groups demonstrated in downtown Caracas against the US presence, according to CNN Brasil. The numbers are also in dispute: the economist Francisco Rodríguez calculated, based on the figures released on Friday, that the pact would yield only $3.22 in fiscal revenue per barrel, less than half the royalty rate of the concessions granted a century ago by dictator Juan Vicente Gómez.
In a televised address on Saturday, Delcy Rodríguez pushed back and presented different numbers: with a reference price of $65 a barrel, the country would receive $209.335 billion over 25 years, about $19 per barrel sold. She said Venezuela keeps "ownership and sovereignty" over its resources, that eight blocks will be developed with minimum royalties of 16% and a 34% income tax, and that total output should exceed the target thanks to deals with companies such as Repsol, Eni, Shell and BP. Her argument, that the reserves need "investment, technology, infrastructure, productive capacity", echoes the case made for the oil opening of the 1990s, which chavismo criticized for decades, Luis Pacheco of Rice University's Baker Institute told the BBC. "It is a recognition that chavismo's ideological, nationalist policy made us lose 35 years, an entire generation", Pacheco said. According to CNN Brasil, Venezuelan officials are preparing to sign new exploration contracts with foreign companies, including the US firm Chevron, in the coming days.