Venezuela, one of the five countries that founded the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in 1960, is considering leaving the cartel it helped create, according to people familiar with the matter quoted by Bloomberg. The possibility has been discussed in Caracas in conversations with United States officials, and no final decision has been made. If confirmed, the exit would make Venezuela the second country to leave the group in a matter of months, after the United Arab Emirates announced its withdrawal about four months ago.
The move reflects the political realignment in Caracas since US President Donald Trump ousted Nicolás Maduro, captured by American forces on January 3, and Washington took control of the country's oil sales. With acting President Delcy Rodríguez in power, the two governments are negotiating a significant US stake in Venezuelan oil fields; according to some of the sources, one model under discussion involves leasing fields for up to 100 years. Some American officials envision an oil power built on a Washington-Caracas alliance, capable of significantly reducing the influence of OPEC, a cartel led by Saudi Arabia.
What it means for Brazil
The dominance of OPEC and its partners had already been eroding with the rise of competitors such as US shale producers, Brazil and Guyana, the Bloomberg report published by Folha points out. A broader fragmentation of the group would raise the risk of members competing with each other for customers and market share, a possible repeat of the brief price war at the start of the pandemic in 2020. Even without an open dispute, the market would lose a global supply manager that intervenes when surpluses appear, leaving prices more exposed to declines. For Brazil, which has expanded its oil output and exports in recent years, a scenario of lower and more volatile prices would directly hit the sector's revenue.
The immediate impact of a Venezuelan exit on global supply, however, would likely be small, according to oil traders. The country produced 1.16 million barrels per day in July, according to a Bloomberg survey, less than half the volume of a decade ago, although output has resumed growth this year. Because of its industry's decline, Caracas is currently not bound by the cartel's production quotas. One of the sources said freeing the country from future quotas would help maximize its long-term output and allow Washington to carry out its plans for the sector without the group's restrictions.
Still, the symbolism carries weight. Beyond the announced exit of the United Arab Emirates, Iraq has voiced dissatisfaction with its production quotas, feeding doubts about the group's cohesion.
"OPEC's very cohesion and credibility may be at stake," said Ali Al Riyami, former director general of oil and gas marketing at the Energy Ministry of Oman, a member of the broader OPEC+ alliance. "The crucial question is whether this marks the start of a broader wave of exits."
Venezuela was considered the most influential country in OPEC's creation, thanks to the diplomatic efforts of its then Oil Minister, Juan Pablo Pérez Alfonzo, and also played a central role in the emergence of OPEC+, the alliance formed in 2016 with outside producers, including Russia. The cartel spanned from the Arab oil embargo of the 1970s to the production cuts that stabilized prices during the 2020 pandemic. A Venezuelan exit would also be a political victory for Trump, a longtime critic of the organization, and could open the way for American and other international oil companies to take part in rebuilding Venezuela's industry, adding to the global oil surplus projected for the coming years by the International Energy Agency (IEA).